Where will DOGE be in five years? A comprehensive analysis of Musk's influence and investment risks.

DOGE was born in 2013 as a parody of the cryptocurrency craze, but it has now become one of the top ten Crypto Assets by market capitalization worldwide. Its rise can be attributed to the support of Elon Musk, but in the absence of technical advantages and clear application scenarios, what will the next five years hold for DOGE? Will it continue to shine, or will it gradually be eliminated by the market?

From Joke to Top Ten by Market Capitalization: The Rise of DOGE

DOGE was created by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer as a fun token based on the Shiba Inu meme, and was not designed with any revolutionary technology.

Transaction cost: less than $0.10, but still higher than the below $0.01 level of some emerging Crypto Assets.

Transaction speed: approximately 30 transactions per second, settlement completed in 5–10 minutes, surpassed by faster blockchain technology.

Application scenario: Mainly used as a tipping and community interaction currency, lacking deep financial applications.

Although the technical aspects are mediocre, DOGE experienced a historic surge in 2021 thanks to its community culture and entertainment attributes, and it gained attention again after the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The Effect of Musk's Tweets: A Double-Edged Sword

Elon Musk has repeatedly publicly supported DOGE on social media platforms since 2019, even calling it his "favorite Crypto Assets."

Driving the Surge: Between 2020 and 2021, Musk's tweets repeatedly triggered short-term spikes in DOGE.

Price peak: reached a historical high of $0.74 on May 8, 2021, but plummeted 70% within two weeks.

Repeating pattern: By the end of 2023, DOGE rises again to $0.48, but drops over 60% within three months.

The problem is that over-reliance on the influence of a single individual causes DOGE to lack stable fundamental support, leading to extreme and unpredictable price fluctuations.

Current Market Performance and Future Challenges

(Source: The Motley Fool)

As of mid-August 2025, DOGE's market capitalization has shrunk by more than 28% within the year, underperforming compared to mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.

The main challenges include:

Technical disadvantages: The advantages of transaction speed and cost are no longer prominent.

Lack of application: failed to establish a core position in DeFi, NFT, or payment sectors.

Intensifying competition: Emerging meme coins and utility tokens continue to divert funds and attention.

Possible Path in Five Years

Optimistic scenario: If DOGE can expand its application scenarios (such as payment integration, gaming economy) and maintain an active community, the price is expected to return to above $0.5 in a low interest rate and crypto bull market.

Neutral scenario: If relying solely on community and Musk's influence, DOGE may fluctuate between 0.1–0.3 USD, maintaining its status as a "Crypto culture symbol."

Pessimistic scenario: If market funds continue to flow towards crypto assets with stronger fundamentals, DOGE may depreciate by more than 50% within five years, falling below 0.1 USD.

Conclusion

The story of DOGE proves the power of community culture and celebrity effect in the Crypto Assets market, but it also reveals the risks of lacking fundamental support. Five years later, whether DOGE continues to be the globally recognized "meme coin king" or becomes marginalized by the market will depend on its ability to break free from reliance on Musk and find real application value. For investors, DOGE is more suitable as a high-risk speculative asset rather than a long-term stable allocation.