Analysts assert that the bottom for ETH/BTC has been confirmed! Three-phase target revealed: Ethereum may reach $20,000 in this cycle.

Well-known analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) announced that his long-held bottom argument for ETH/BTC has been validated, and he released clear cyclical targets anchored by the cross exchange rate. According to his prediction, ETH/BTC will gradually target three key levels of 0.058, 0.091, and 0.16, corresponding to Ethereum prices potentially reaching $6500, $10,000, and even $20,000.

1. Bottom Confirmation: The Market's Extreme Pessimism Becomes a Reversal Signal The chart shared by the astronomer on platform X shows that the "bottom area" of ETH/BTC defined months in advance has been validated by the actual trend. He admitted that this prediction initially seemed "absurd" — an "absurd prediction line" that goes directly upward from a position that was considered "impossible to be the bottom", but ultimately matched closely with his proprietary emotional indicator.

"At that time, the market sentiment towards Ethereum was the most pessimistic in the history of my indicator tracking," with mainstream narratives including "ETH is a bad investment," "the Ethereum Foundation is selling off," "SOL will replace ETH," and "utility tokens are dead." This extreme pessimism instead became an important contrarian indicator for confirming the bottom.

Phase II and III Goals: Evolution Path from 0.058 to 0.16

Analysts clearly set three target levels for ETH/BTC:

First Target: 0.058 BTC

• There is still 35% upside potential from the current position.
• If Bitcoin maintains its current price, the corresponding ETH price is about 6500 USD.

Second Goal: 0.091 BTC

• Nearly doubled increase
• Corresponding to ETH breaking the 10,000 USD mark
• Analysts indicate that they will reduce more than half of their spot positions at this level.

Third Objective: 0.16 BTC

• Nearly 4 times increase, Ether is expected to break 20,000 USD
• Clarified as "ideal target rather than baseline scenario"
• "Although I cannot guarantee it, I keep an open possibility"

3. Technical Logic: Relative Strength is More Important than Absolute Price The core of this analytical framework is the ETH/BTC exchange rate rather than the USD price, aiming to capture relative strength and avoid the fluctuations based on Bitcoin's dollar value. The implied ETH/USD price is simply a conversion (exchange rate × BTC price), and the analyst specifically emphasizes: "These dollar conversions will actually be underestimated because I expect Bitcoin to rise further."

IV. Cyclical Thinking: Completely Abandon Seasonal Patterns The astronomer explicitly rejects seasonal heuristics: "I never discuss seasonal patterns or 'Red September' or 'Sell in May' because I don't want to encourage people to base their hard-earned capital on weak data... Seasonal patterns have no causal logic whatsoever." He added: "The market only has cycles, not seasons," and ended with a jest: "Want a Red September? Please go look for it in your local forest."

5. Capital Rotation Conditions: Bitcoin Leads, Ethereum Follows The analysis follows the same path dependence of relative rotation dynamics—Bitcoin leads the market first, followed by Ethereum until liquidity rotates, then ETH/BTC progresses along the predetermined track. Within this framework, the analysis does not rely on any specific ETH/USD price, but rather on whether ETH/BTC can recover and maintain the stated range.

6. In-depth Comparison: Differentiated Performance of Ethereum and Bitcoin in This Cycle

Start Timing Difference

• Bitcoin usually starts a major upward trend 1-2 months ahead of Ethereum.
• Ethereum tends to rise more significantly but starts a bit later.

Value Drivers

• Bitcoin: Mainly driven by halving cycles and macro hedging demand
• Ethereum: More driven by technological upgrades and the development of ecological applications

Institutional Allocation Logic

• Bitcoin: Incorporate as "digital gold" in asset allocation
• Ethereum: Considered both a yield-generating asset and a technology growth target

Liquidity Sensitivity

• Bitcoin: More sensitive to changes in macro liquidity.
• Ethereum: More sensitive to the flow of native cryptocurrency funds

7. Position Structure Analysis: Most Investors Missed the Bottom Layout The astronomer sharply points out the current market positioning mentality: "Although it seems that many people are now flaunting their wealth by holding a large amount of ETH, the order flow shows that most of these people did not buy in at low levels, but are frozen outside or forced to chase higher prices with greater leverage." In his view, this structure is actually beneficial for rising towards the set targets: "As long as this situation continues, I will keep looking forward to the realization of these targets."

[Conclusion] Astronomer's ETH/BTC analysis provides a unique perspective based on relative strength, with three target levels offering investors a clear roadmap. It is important to note that these predictions are based on the premise that Bitcoin continues to rise and capital rotates into Ethereum. For investors, paying attention to the changes in the ETH/BTC exchange rate may better capture the market rhythm than simply focusing on the dollar price. How much do you think Ethereum can reach in this cycle? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!