Firstly, it’s very unlikely you’ll sell the top. You just probably won’t, and neither will I, nor will I attempt to.

Cycle tops happen on LTFs and they happen quickly, it is very rarely obvious until you see it come through on HTFs.

Day traders who are focused on LTFs may catch it, but they will already have already called and been convinced of the cycle top so many times that it is irrelevant. They aren’t focused on any wider context.

I am still a student of markets, and am continually learning. I simply haven’t witnessed enough market cycles to feel like I am an expert at all, so am I just sharing my honest thoughts and observations here.

Come to your own conclusions and make your own financial decisions. I don’t know anything more than anyone else, and I change my mind very regularly based on new data.

The Case FOR a Four-Year Cycle Top

The Pattern Recognition Argument:

Looking at the historical chart, there’s an undeniable pattern: December 2013, December 2017, November 2021. The four-year cycle has been remarkably consistent, and patterns in markets tend to persist until they’re broken by fundamental changes.

Why the Pattern Might Hold:

• Psychological entrenchment: The four-year cycle is now deeply embedded in crypto consciousness
• Self-fulfilling prophecy: Widespread awareness could create coordinated selling pressure, which combines with hidden leverage in the system (DATs?)
• Halving correlation: Bitcoin halvings create supply shocks that have historically preceded peaks by 12-18 months (this seems to be more narrative than anything else this cycle though)
• Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is often correct - why complicate what has worked three times?

We’re certainly not early in this cycle - BTC has already made substantial gains since the bottom. The pattern suggests we should be approaching a peak timeframe.

The Case AGAINST a Four-Year Cycle Top (2026 Thesis)

The Fundamental Shift Argument:

I’m asking a simple question: Can an institutional-driven cycle really look identical to two previously retail-driven ones?

I do generally believe in market cycles, so there will be no super cycle chat here, but I think they can become under or overextended based on other factors.

Why This Time Genuinely Might Be Different

1. Institutional vs. Retail Behavior Patterns

• Spot ETF flows vs. traditional exchange flows create entirely new liquidity patterns
• Systematic institutional profit-taking is smoother and less panic-driven than retail behavior

2. Traditional Indicators May Be Broken

• We have tons of cycle analysis tools (NVT, MVRV, etc.), but their historical ranges were based on retail-driven markets
• Institutional participation fundamentally changes what “overextended” looks like
• BTC isn’t even above its previous cycle high in gold terms right now - hardly bubble territory

3. Regulatory Environment Revolution

• Completely different landscape this cycle, embraced by the US and SEC, clear institutional frameworks
• Previous cycles ended partly due to regulatory shocks (ICO crackdown in 2018)
• That systematic sudden cycle ending risk has been largely removed

4. Macro and Fed Dynamics

• The Fed Chair: Powell’s term ends May 2026, with Trump likely announcing replacement late 2025
• “Shadow Fed chair” dynamic reduces current policy effectiveness while creating anticipatory buying pressure assuming Trump nominates a dovish chair
• First FOMC for new Fed Chair is June 17-18, 2026 - potential catalyst timing
• Extended goldilocks environment through the transition period

Historical Fed Chair Transition Pattern: Looking at previous transitions provides a compelling template:

The Consistent Pattern: Both transitions show the same sequence: nomination sparks rallies that extend through the transition period, but S&P 500 corrections occur precisely when new Chairs take office.

The Yellen handover saw a ~6% SPX drop in Jan-Feb 2014, while Powell’s resulted in a ~12% correction in Feb 2018. This suggests Trump’s late 2025 nominee announcement could extend the bull market through the transition period, with high probability of volatility emerging around the May-June 2026 handover - potentially aligning with cycle top timing.

5. Market Structure Changes

• Currency debasement concerns creating new demand drivers beyond risk-on/risk-off

• Stablecoin market cap as leading indicator - continues growing (our “dry powder” metric)

• Much more diverse BTC demand sources than previous cycles: ETFs, DATs, pension funds

What could end it early and cause the four year cycle to repeat again?

The DAT Leverage Risk: The strongest bearish factor I see is DAT companies potentially unwinding faster than anticipated. Major forced sellers can overwhelm buyers and change market structure. However, there’s a difference between losing buying demand (mNAVs at 1) and becoming forced sellers causing “downward violence.”

That being said, losing the buying power of major DATs, would clearly be significant. A lot of people are speculating that this has happened already, with mNAVs having dropped a lot for both Strategy and the main ETH DAT companies. I’m not blind to this, and neither should you be, so it is well worth watching closely.

Macro Risks: Inflation running hot again is the real macro risk, but I don’t see evidence of that yet. Crypto is now highly correlated with macro, and we’re still in a goldilocks environment.

Missing Cycle Top Ingredients

No Euphoria Yet:

• Haven’t shaken off the wall of worry - every 5% dip triggers cycle top calls (18 months running)

• No sustained euphoria or market unity around continued upside

• No blow-off top behavior (not essential)

If we see a large crypto leg up later this year that meaningfully outperforms equities - that blow-off top signal could indicate crypto tops well before the business cycle that is likely to continue into 2026.

The Stablecoin Leading Indicator

One particularly actionable metric: stablecoin market cap growth

In TradFi, M2 money supply growth often precedes asset bubbles. In crypto, stablecoin market cap serves a similar function - total “USD” available within the crypto ecosystem.

Major cycle tops have often coincided with stablecoin supply stagnation 3-6 months prior. As long as stablecoin supply keeps growing meaningfully, we likely have more fuel in the tank.

My Current View

Gun to head, I currently don’t see a major cycle top until 2026 based on current observations (loosely held opinion that can change quickly).

We have limited data points on the four-year cycle (only three instances), and institutional participation represents a fundamental market structure change. The Fed Chair transition dynamics alone could extend goldilocks conditions through 2025, and I think this is particularly significant, especially as crypto is more correlated with macro than ever before.

This cycle we also have more awareness of the four year cycle meme amongst crypto market participants, which makes me think that we will have a slightly different outcome. When has the crowd ever been right?

Is everyone going to sell the four year cycle pattern and ride off into the sunset together?

However, I acknowledge the four-year pattern has been remarkably consistent, and market patterns tend to persist until broken. The crowd’s awareness of the cycle could indeed create the self-fulfilling prophecy that ends it.

I’ll continue taking profits on overextended alt moves as BTC.D comes down, but I’m holding BTC with the belief it makes new highs in 2026. Your alt can still top at any point regardless of any broader cycle timing.

Final Thoughts

The four-year cycle pattern is the strongest argument for a 2025 top - it’s worked three times and simplicity often wins. But institutional market structure changes, Fed transition dynamics, and missing euphoria signals suggest this cycle could extend into 2026.

Much can change in the coming months, so there is no point in being too dogmatic here.

Either way, accept you cannot sell the pico top and create a systematic exit strategy.

The right exposure is the exposure that lets you sleep peacefully at night. It’s entirely fine to sell “too early” if you’ve made good money.

Very much open to all opinions, including opposing ones. I write this to help with my own decision making and to learn in public.

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